Three Catalysts That Could Push Bitcoin Beyond $120K

Key takeaways:

• Record global money supply growth is a big tailwind for Bitcoin.

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs could soon surpass gold holdings, boosting BTC’s reserve-asset status.

• Retail inflows remain limited but could ignite a strong rally if mainstream interest returns.

Bitcoin (BTC) last traded at $120,000 on July 23, prompting traders to question whether a new all-time high is still possible this year.

Global economic uncertainty and the sustainability of the artificial intelligence sector remain the biggest risks.

Still, three major near-to-medium-term drivers could set Bitcoin on a path well above its current $2.3 trillion market capitalization.

Some analysts expect Bitcoin to surpass gold’s $23 trillion valuation, while others argue that a full decoupling from tech stocks will take much longer as adoption remains in its early stages.

Even if investor perception does not shift, the expansion of the global monetary supply is laying the groundwork for a new paradigm, and Nvidia (NVDA) may be signaling that change.

Bitcoin trades like Nvidia, Strategy and Metaplanet

Nvidia’s valuation surged to $4.4 trillion from $2.3 trillion in March, despite its latest quarterly net income being flat compared to six months earlier.

Traders may be betting on much higher future earnings, or valuation metrics may be losing relevance as governments are expected to accelerate monetary expansion due to mounting fiscal debt.

The M2 global money supply across the 21 largest central banks reached a record $55.5 trillion in July, while the United States federal budget deficit totaled $1.3 trillion in just nine months.

Such conditions support the case for Bitcoin bulls, even if BTC’s relatively strong correlation with tech stocks continues.

However, retail inflows are still largely absent despite Bitcoin’s 116% gains over the past year, but that is expected to change.

The gap compared to the S&P 500’s 22% annual return acts as a magnet for new capital, particularly as the cryptocurrency gains traction in mainstream media with companies like Strategy (MSTR) and MetaPlanet (MTPLF) grabbing headlines.

Related: Bitcoin company Metaplanet kicks off August with first big buy

Currently, crypto apps such as Coinbase and Robinhood show little sign of retail investor excitement, with both remaining outside the top-10, something that was last achieved in November 2024.

While the catalyst for renewed retail interest is uncertain, significant room remains for a retail-driven rally in 2025, particularly as traditional finance and the US government embrace Bitcoin.

Bitcoin gets 401(k) green light

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday permitting cryptocurrency and other alternative assets in 401(k) retirement accounts.

Michael Heinrich, co-founder and CEO of 0G Labs, said the 401(k) rule change could “unlock trillions in retirement capital for Bitcoin.”

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said the change could be transformative for the industry.

Currently, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds hold $150 billion in assets, compared with $198 billion for gold instruments as of July 2025, according to Forbes.

Once spot Bitcoin ETFs surpass gold’s equivalent holdings, the event could help cement its perception as a reserve asset rather than a risk-on trade.

Over time, more institutional investors are likely to add Bitcoin positions as it gains relevance as a reserve asset for public companies, sovereign wealth funds, and governments. While the precise timing remains uncertain, Bitcoin’s trajectory toward a new all-time high in 2025 appears firmly set.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.